Safety Culture and the Positive Association of Being a Primary Care Training Practice during COVID-19: The Results of the Multi-Country European PRICOV-19 Study.

The day-to-day work of primary care (PC) was substantially changed by the COVID-19 pandemic. Teaching practices needed to adapt both clinical work and teaching in a way that enabled the teaching process to continue, while maintaining safe and high-quality care. Our study aims to investigate the effect of being a training practice on a number of different outcomes related to the safety culture of PC practices. PRICOV-19 is a multi-country cross-sectional study that researches how PC practices were organized in 38 countries during the pandemic. Data was collected from November 2020 to December 2021. We categorized practices into training and non-training and selected outcomes relating to safety culture: safe practice management, community outreach, professional well-being and adherence to protocols. Mixed-effects regression models were built to analyze the effect of being a training practice for each of the outcomes, while controlling for relevant confounders. Of the participating practices, 2886 (56%) were non-training practices and 2272 (44%) were training practices. Being a training practice was significantly associated with a lower risk for adverse mental health events (OR: 0.83; CI: 0.70-0.99), a higher number of safety measures related to patient flow (Beta: 0.17; CI: 0.07-0.28), a higher number of safety incidents reported (RR: 1.12; CI: 1.06-1.19) and more protected time for meetings (Beta: 0.08; CI: 0.01-0.15). No significant associations were found for outreach initiatives, availability of triage information, use of a phone protocol or infection prevention measures and equipment availability. Training practices were found to have a stronger safety culture than non-training practices. These results have important policy implications, since involving more PC practices in education may be an effective way to improve quality and safety in general practice.

COVID-19: Forecasting confirmed cases and deaths with a simple time series model.

Forecasting the outcome of outbreaks as early and as accurately as possible is crucial for decision-making and policy implementations. A significant challenge faced by forecasters is that not all outbreaks and epidemics turn into pandemics, making the prediction of their severity difficult. At the same time, the decisions made to enforce lockdowns and other mitigating interventions versus their socioeconomic consequences are not only hard to make, but also highly uncertain. The majority of modeling approaches to outbreaks, epidemics, and pandemics take an epidemiological approach that considers biological and disease processes. In this paper, we accept the limitations of forecasting to predict the long-term trajectory of an outbreak, and instead, we propose a statistical, time series approach to modelling and predicting the short-term behavior of COVID-19. Our model assumes a multiplicative trend, aiming to capture the continuation of the two variables we predict (global confirmed cases and deaths) as well as their uncertainty. We present the timeline of producing and evaluating 10-day-ahead forecasts over a period of four months. Our simple model offers competitive forecast accuracy and estimates of uncertainty that are useful and practically relevant.

Mental Health Disorders During the COVID-19 Outbreak in Cyprus.

Cyprus has been affected by COVID-19 since March 2019. With a case fatality rate of 2.6% (until June 2020) and the social isolation measures enforced on the population, the population's mental health has been affected. We aimed to assess the mental health burden of the Cypriot population during the outbreak and to explore the potential influence factors. Using a web-based cross-sectional survey, we collected data from 216 volunteers regarding demographic data, COVID-19-related knowledge, generalized anxiety disorder (GAD), and major depressive symptoms. The overall prevalence of GAD and major depressive symptoms of the public were 13.89% and 8.33%, respectively. No demographic had shown any statistical significance with GAD. The younger age group of the study showed a statistically significant association with major depressive symptoms when compared to the adult population in both univariate and multivariable analyses. Our study identified a mental health burden of the Cypriot population, especially the younger age groups. As part of the preparedness for situations as the one we are experiencing and the future impact the pandemic may have on society, interventions should be focused on vulnerable groups of the population to alleviate the psychosocial effects.